Analysis and evaluation of maritime collision risk based on catastrophe theory
Date of Issue2018
School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering
Maritime transportation is of importance to the globalization of trade and economy. However, a maritime accident could cause severe consequences such as enormous property damage and life loss. Consequently, the researches on how to minimize maritime risk level and improve maritime traffic safety are significant and meaningful. Nevertheless, few researches have drawn attentions to the development process of maritime traffic accident and the determination of the potential relevant factors that might cause the accident. To address those research gaps, this research is conducted to propose a quantitative method for maritime accident analysis and collision risk evaluation. The research consists of four main phases. Firstly, catastrophe theory is adopted to describe maritime traffic system, which is a complex and nonlinear system containing the components of human, vessel, and environment. Secondly, a cusp catastrophe model for maritime traffic system is established to analyze the evolutionary process of a maritime accident. Thirdly, catastrophe progression method is applied to quantitatively evaluate maritime collision risk based on the performance of each potential relevant factors. Finally, two maritime collision cases are discussed from the perspectives of maritime accident analysis and risk evaluation. Accordingly, the feasibility and effectiveness of the method proposed in this research are verified.