The price of peace : the influence of post-conflict economic reconstruction policies on conflict recurrence
Date of Issue2018-02-08
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Post-conflict administrations face high risks of conflict recurrence following the end of a civil war. The paper examines the political-economic causes of civil conflict through the identification of key risks based on a risk factor model of conflict. It analyses the trans formative effect of the risks on the society's reversion to conflict through a dynamic game of complete information, which identifies the central incentive structures and strategies of different parties in a post-conflict society. It considers the role of normative post-conflict reconstruction policy choices and recommendations on the mitigation of conflict recurrence. The failure to provide accessible public goods through state distributive policies increases the propensity of conflict recurrence, as opposed to state failure to address macroeconomic policy objectives. State redistributive policies acknowledge the risk factors more effectively than state austerity policies. Specifically, the presence of an increased or sustained military expenditure, dependency on resource rents, and decreased public spending can increase the mobilisation capacity of the rebels. However, this appears to be contrary to how post-conflict reconstruction policies are prioritized and implemented.
DRNTU::Social sciences::Political science