Outlook for the dry bulk sector
Liu, Ji Yuan
Date of Issue2017-05-18
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Passed through the great recession from late year 2008 to 2010, the dry bulk shipping market seemed to have enjoyed some “peaceful” period until year 2014. After that, the downturn of the shipping cycle started again since year 2015. 10 February 2016 shall be marked as the darkest day of the dry bulk shipping industry ever – the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell into a historical lowest point of 290 among its 31 years’ records, by comparing of 556 points in year 2015 and 1096 points in year 2014 on the same day. In another word, on that day the Time Charter Equivalents (TCE) which can be understood as the dry bulk carrier’s daily charter hire revenue won’t be exceed USD 3000, regardless of the Capasize, Panamax, Supramax or Handysize, etc. As the daily revenue is far below the daily costs for a long period, shipping recessions are here to occur. In general, reasons for current shipping recession can be explained as imbalance of tonnage supply and cargo demand. When growth rate of ship tonnage is faster than commodity seaborne trading volume, freight rate will surely drop. In this report, I am going to analyze the current market situations and make some predictions about the dry bulk shipping trends in coming three to five years.
DRNTU::Engineering::Maritime studies::Maritime management and business
Final Year Project (FYP)
Nanyang Technological University