Reliability analysis of foundations accounting for parametric uncertainties

Abstract

The Building and Construction Authority (BCA) has introduced the Eurocodes as Singapore’s building codes on 1st April 2013. Even though Eurocodes is considered as one of the most technically advanced design standards in the world, it does have some limitations in representing the correlations of parameters. A spreadsheet-cell-object-oriented algorithm for the first-order reliability method (FORM) is proposed by Low and Tang [12], which can play a useful complementary role to overcome some limitations in Eurocode 7 design. This project explored how reliability analysis can be used in foundation designs together with Eurocode 7 design and current algorithms. Three case studies, a spread foundation, an axially loaded pile and a laterally loaded pile, based on different design procedures were illustrated. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to estimate the probability of failure of the results from EC7 approach as well as FORM analysis. The results in this study indicated that reliability analysis takes into account the correlations, uncertainty, and sensitivity of parameters in foundations design, and is able to estimate the probability of failure during its design procedure. This study also pointed out that the effects of horizontal load can make considerable influence to the results of foundation designs.