Expansion of earthquake exposures in East Asia
Chen, Xian Yong
Date of Issue2015
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management
The conglomeration of urban settlements creates concentrations of assets that are exposed to natural hazards. This is borne out in recent history where widespread destruction in urban areas has been caused by natural hazards (e.g. 2011 Tohoku earthquake and 2011 Thai Floods). Quantification of natural hazard risk will help boost our preparedness and response planning on multiple fronts. This project explores a new framework to predict macro-level seismic losses for urban regions based on urban growth theories. This systemic approach for exposure and loss projection involves 1) Bayesian Probabilistic Models to predict Population Growth, 2) Urban Scaling Laws to predict growth of macroeconomic indicators, and 3) Loss Functions to calculate seismic loss potential for regions. Combining urban data with computational methods, we are able to generate region-level GDP and urban land extent estimates for the future. These exposure projections can be used to estimate macro-level seismic losses for urban regions with consideration of structural vulnerability and local seismology. Macroeconomic data from 31 administrative regions in China have been used for this study to generate exposure projections (GDP and urban land) in year 2030. These exposure predictions are used in loss quantification methods that estimate potential losses of up to US$110 billion for the Shanghai region arising from an earthquake of ground shaking intensity ‘X’. The study of macroeconomic statistics and urban scaling relations has also revealed underlying relationships and characteristics between economic and spatial growth that will aid forward-looking urban planning and disaster reduction strategies.
Final Year Project (FYP)
Nanyang Technological University